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Don't back the irish  Why
we should steer clear of our own horses this year.
Just six days now before the flag falls in the Supreme Novice Hurdle
at Cheltenham and a roar will go up around the Cotswolds that may not
have quite the affect of the recent earthquake but will still leave a
deafening ring in ears as the runners and riders make their way down to
the first.
The roar that rises when it has been announced that ‘they’re
off’ is the most famous but on a decibel level it would be nothing
to compare with once Irish-trained winner number seven or eight comes
about. However the problem this year is that Irish-trained winner seven
or eight is unlikely to come about.
The Kauto Star v Denman battle bus has attempted to grip the nation in
an effort to make those not as knowledgeable about the Sport Of Kings
more aware of what is about to be unleashed upon them next Friday. Billed
as the greatest meeting of two chasers since Arkle and Mill House, the
duel of the Paul Nicholls pair is enough to whet the appetite for any
race day never mind the Cheltenham Festival.
But for the patriotic Irish punters among you — I hope the poker
goes well because Irish-trained success will be at a minimum. The handicapper
Phil Smith has certainly not been overly kind in his releasing of the
weights last Wednesday and looking at it, the Champion Hurdle, the Bumper,
the Cross Country and maybe the odd handicap and one of the novice races
is about the best we can hope for. In saying that I just hope that the
Champion Hurdle will be one of them.
Sublimity will bid to regain the crown he won so emphatically 12 months
ago and despite the vibes being mixed John Carr is in an upbeat mood about
his stable star. “Everything is going fine with him, we’ve
not had a problem,” said Carr.
“He went to Leopardstown on Monday for a racecourse gallop and he’ll
have a little blow out on the Friday before we travel over with him on
Saturday. We’re very, very happy with him. We did exactly the same
last year and we are trying to stick as close to that as possible.”
Sublimity was the young gun last year and this year Sizing Europe will
be aiming to repeat the feat of John Carr’s charge and Henry de
Bromhead could not be happier with the development of the six-year-old.
“He is in good form and has ticked all the right boxes when winning
the AIG at Leopardstown and is onwards to Cheltenham now,” said
the young Waterford-based trainer.
But there is a tendency in Ireland to forget about certain horses because
we haven’t seen them up close and personal and Osana could fall
into that bracket quite easily among Irish punters. He did little wrong
in winning the Boylesports International where he quite simply stuffed
Sublimity and ran a respectable race when giving away weight to Sizing
Europe when they met.
While I personally think that Sizing Europe will maintain that line of
form, if Osana was trained in Ireland he would be an awful lot shorter
in the betting and he certainly makes good each way appeal.
The quality of Ireland’s novice chasers this year have been far
from up to scratch and the Arkle is certainly a race that the hosts will
be celebrating. Doubts were raised over Noland following his win a fortnight
ago. He jumped brilliantly, was not fully wound-up and I have no doubt
he will provide Ruby Walsh with his first winner at the festival.
Spotthedifference will be sorely missed from the field in the Cross Country
Chase where Tony Martin is likely to be responsible for the favourite
Wonderkid. He won around Cheltenham in December and has a lovely weight
to be contesting this race off.
However Enda Bolger is simply an expert at farming these races and Garde
Champetre is a relatively new recruit to his ranks who will have JP smiling.
He won a similar contest at Punchestown recently and will provide connections
with yet another win in the famous contest.
Day two plays host to the Ballymore Properties Novice Hurdle, the Royal
and Sun Alliance Novice Chase and of course the Champion Chase but as
far as all Irish punters are concerned and punters in the main, the Bumper
is all that matters.
A number of leading fancies have emerged for this with Time Electric being
a notable absentee. Brave Inca’s trainer Colm Murphy saddle’s
favourite Zaarito who the shrewd trainer is quite bullish about.
“He is in good form and I would like to think he will improve from
his last run at Naas. Anything we have asked of him he has done and I
can’t ask more than that really. He takes very little work and we
have to do little with him and hopefully he can get there in one piece
now,” said Murphy.
However chalk this down. The Irish Post are going to give you one to keep
an eye on at a massive price. Available at 66/1 at the time of going to
print, a horse called Timisvar could surprise a few in the final race
on day two of the festival.
Timisvar is trained by James Leavy who was responsible for Sophocles finishing
second in last year’s renewal at odds of 40/1 under Pauline Ryan.
Those connections team up again here with this son of Sinndar and don’t
be surprised to see him involved.
Next week we will look ahead to the final two days of the Olympic festival
of horse racing.
This week’s horses to watch…
Thursday: 2.55pm Wincanton
Tip: Newton Bridge
The drop back in trip last time out clearly didn’t suit Gordon Elliot’s
star novice. Back over 2.5miles against an average field he may take all
the beating.
Thursday: 3.15pm Carlisle
Tip: Mr Barnacle
Victors in this race last year, the Richards/Dobbin combo may feel this
is the perfect opportunity for Mr Barnacle to break his duck over hurdles
after some very encouraging recent efforts.
Thursday: 4pm Wincanton
Tip: Stolen Moments
His first two chasing efforts have been very pleasing despite failing
to get his head in front. With weight on his side Alan King’s ultra
consistent novice may have found his chance.
Thursday: 8.50pm Wolverhampton
Tip: Trachonitis
A very impressive winner on the all-weather at Kempton last time out,
this star handicapper should be too strong for the rest of these. The
booking of Neil Callan is also a positive move.
Friday: 2.40pm Sandown
Tip: Jack The Blaster
Howard Johnson’s handicapper has clearly found his forte over fences
and may be worth taking a chance with here. He steps up in trip on his
last effort but that may not be enough to stop him scoring in this moderate
race.
Friday: 5pm Sandown
Tip: Woolcombe Folly
Victory would seem inevitable for Paul Nicholls’ hurdler. Narrowly
missed out on his hurdling debut but Ruby Walsh is booked for the ride
and weight while conditions will be in his favour here. |
