The North – A Look Ahead.

THE temptation this time of year is to utter a wish and a prayer that somehow, a way forward can be found in the New Year which will allow the peace progress in Northern Ireland to progress.

However, with the Rev. Ian Paisley and his Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) firmly ensconced in power and his vituperative hatred of Sinn Fein, the major Nationalist party, apparent to all, it hardly seems a time for optimism in 2004. Pessimists ask where can a power sharing agreement come from? The answer is that it is very difficult to say, but it’s not impossible.

It can come from surprising places, as we have learned at every step of this process. There is a clear roadmap ahead and our guess is that it will lead to new elections sometime in 2004, which may break the logjam.

First we will have the not so delicate elephant’s ballet when Paisley thunders up to the Dublin government and announces there will be no agreement at talks. Others will speak softly, such as his deputy leader Peter Robinson. 

The overall impact will be to keep the door open a crack or so. Already the incurable optimists have pointed to the fact that the DUP, Paisley’s party, has agreed to talk to Dublin as some sign of a willingness to engage.

It is quite likely, however, that it is the opposite, a deliberate ploy to appear that they are doing their best to press forward, but meanwhile stalling for time as much as they can. 

Alas, it is sad to say but nonetheless true that the Paisleyites are so deeply entrenched in the No school of politics after 30 years of obstructionism that it is nigh impossible to see them changing as long as Big Ian is in charge and, indeed, perhaps long beyond him.

That means that the British and Irish governments have a particular responsibility in this situation. They must enter in good faith into the talks with the DUP, but they must also be aware that the DUP’s real intent is very likely to spin the talks out into some far future date or renegotiate the Good Friday Agreement purely on their terms.

The two governments must let the talks happen but be mindful of this reality. At some point they will have to call time if the negotiations are leading nowhere and bring together a session of the Northern Ireland Assembly. 

At that session it will be put up to the DUP that they can take the role of first minister serving with a Sinn Fein deputy minister, or they can let the Assembly collapse and the governments can call a new election.

The odds, of course, are very good that the DUP will refuse to share power with Sinn Fein and at that point the governments will have no option but to call new elections.

Unionism will then be faced with a stark choice indeed. Do they want to return a party that is refusing to move a peace process forward which, while flawed, has brought the greatest stretch of peace to Northern Ireland in over a quarter century? 

Or will they turn again to David Trimble, whose party, despite all the pressure and the gloomy prognostications, performed quite well in the recent elections.

It was encouraging in the recent election to see just how much support there was on the Unionist side for the Agreement, as reflected in the Ulster Unionist Party’s surprisingly strong performance.

Indeed, if one were to analyze those results, all Paisley’s party really did was scoop up the minor hard-line parties and add them to their own total.

A new election would serve to paint the stark contrast between the abominable No men and those who want a political contest, not an uncertain one for Northern Ireland. While we may be peering too far into the future, at some point the issue in the North will come down to just that.