By NiallO’Dowd

Can a black man or a white woman be elected president of the U.S.?

We are about to find out after Barack Obama, the African American senator from Illinois, tossed his hat into the ring on Monday followed by Senator Hillary Clinton on Saturday. We can expect the mother of all battles for the Democratic nomination for president.

The Washington Post/ ABC News poll last weekend held good news for Hillary as to who is more likely to win the battle. She led nationwide among Democrats by 41% to 17% over Obama.

The poll showed a huge imbalance among voters by gender. Clinton barely led Obama among men but was streets ahead with women.

Women aged 18-35 in particular supported the New York senator.

Given that nine million more female voters than men voted in the last presidential election that is a very significant advantage. If Clinton becomes president it will be because of this bedrock support among her own gender.

Interesting that the cautious Iraq war stance she has taken has not hurt her with mainstream Democratic voters according to the survey. Most voters have a practical view of the war, blaming the Bush administration but not those who had no hand in that decision to go in in the first place.

The Washington Post poll went to the heart of the argument that Clinton, can in fact win the White House. That is seriously disputed by her adversaries who say she is unelectable because of high negatives.

Yes it is true that over 40% of the American electorate dislike her to a greater or lesser extent, but any candidate who ends up in a two horse race for president will inevitably end up at around the same level of like/dislike among Americans.

As for Clinton being unable to win a southern state, Arkansas is clearly one where she would have an inbuilt advantage while her husband swept Florida on both his victory triumphs.

Indeed, it is hard to pinpoint a state that Senator John Kerry won that Clinton could not win. These days presidential elections come down to a handful of swing states such as Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire, all of which trended Democratic in the recent election.

If she does win it will also be because the trends are starting to accelerate in her favor. The war in Iraq debacle, the surge in interest on issues such as global warming and universal health insurance are all Democratic issues. Any Democratic candidate has an inbuilt advantage as the 2008 landscape begins to shape up

But is America ready for a woman or a black president? I believe they are ready for a woman, but not a black man.

The reason is that very few blacks have made it to major elected office in America, and racism is still alive and kicking.

Obama is only the third black senator ever. Deval Patrick, who was just elected governor of Massachusetts, is only the second ever black governor.

Many black candidates over the years have looked likely to win major office but were always defeated by a hidden racist vote. It happened again in Tennessee in the recent Senate election when Harold Ford was pipped at the post after a savage and racist campaign against him.

On the other hand, there are currently 16 female senators and over 20 female governors. The sight of women in high public office has long since stopped being a curiosity.

Indeed, a woman now sits just two heartbeats from the presidency. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is next in line if President Bush and Vice President Cheney were somehow assassinated.

That is why Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is much more likely to be elected than Barack Obama as a future president. While all the excitement flows around the charismatic Obama, political insiders know it is only a matter of time before the race factor becomes obvious.

But it is still an extraordinary and historic moment in American politics with a black and a woman among the favorites to become president. How times have changed in America. That is the best news of all.