By NiallO’Dowd

THE dog days of summer are upon us, and with them the slackening off of political debate until after Labor Day.

The immigration issue has gone to earth with pretty much everything else as the politicians prepare for what will be a vital election season starting early September.

Though it looks increasingly unlikely that there will be action on immigration in this Congress, there are still very valid grounds for optimism that the issue will be dealt with in the near future — most likely the first session of the new Congress which sits in January.

The shape of that Congress will be critical and is the main reason for the optimism that pro-immigration advocates feel.

Currently polls show that the Democrats have a significant lead when the question is asked which party voters will choose in November. If that were to translate into a Democratic controlled House of Representatives in November it would provide a huge boost for the immigration reform advocates.

The major stumbling block, as we all know, has been the Republican leadership in the House which has blocked any consideration of the Senate bill, in favor of a series of short-term political hearings aimed at whipping up anti-immigrant sentiment.

Obviously if that leadership was replaced by a Democratic one that has already pledged to work with the Senate on immigration reform, it would have huge consequences for the bill. The prospect of anti-reform politicians such as Congressmen James Sensenbrenner and Peter King no longer controlling the agenda would certainly add to chances of passage of a bill.

It is considered far less likely that the Senate will change hands, but there has been a consistent group of Republican senators who have seen reason on immigration reform and voted for the Senate bill.

Indeed, the name of Senate bill that passed earlier this year, Hagel-Martinez, reflects the work of two Republican senators, Chuck Hegel from Nebraska and Mel Martinez from Florida. Republican senators such as John McCain and Arlen Specter also played huge roles in ensuring that the bill passed the Senate.

While Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is not running for re-election, his likely replacement, if Republicans hold on to the Senate, is Senator Mitch McConnell from Kentucky, who has voted for the Senate reform package.

Also, even though Democrats may not ultimately win the Senate, it seems likely that they will make significant gains that would make the chamber responsive to an immigration bill similar to what passed this year.

So the trend at present looks positive, but there is much to play for between now and November. Irish Americans who consider this issue important should definitely find out how their House representative or senator has voted on it during this current session of Congress.

Volunteers from the Irish Lobby for Immigration Reform have done a tremendous job over the summer lobbying and attending the various town hall meetings called by the Republicans in the House who want to kill the immigration bill.

There will be a huge need for such proactive work in the weeks and months ahead, especially in areas where pro-immigration reform candidates of whatever party face off against opponents of immigration reform. No one said making immigration reform a reality would be easy, but the long term trend definitely seems in favor of those of us seeking it. Let us hope that trend continues.