By NiallO’Dowd

THE most important week since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998 begins in Leeds Castle in England this week as the Northern Irish political parties meet with the Irish and British premiers and U.S. special envoy Mitchell Reiss.

At stake is the future of the peace process, a phrase that has been overused to the point of cliché up to now, but this time it can be said in deadly earnest. British Prime Minister Tony Blair has already stated that unless there is significant progress to report, the peace process as we currently know it is dead.

There has been much speculation about the “Plan B” that Blair announced last week if the current round of negotiations fails. It is certainly interesting that after years of placating Unionist concerns, there now appears to be a real possibility that the British government are prepared to forge ahead even without the Unionists. 

Blair knows, of course, that Sinn Fein has made it clear both privately and publicly that they will deliver on their side of the evaluation if a deal can be struck. That would include the disbandment of the IRA and accepting the new policing service in Northern Ireland, a huge prize.

The “Plan B” option is necessary, though. For years parties have found reason after reason to not sit down and accommodate their differences. The litany of lost opportunities is a long one, and there is no guarantee that at Leeds Castle this week we will not witness another.

And yet there are some fundamentals that have changed this time which may mean that the long awaited breakthrough is nigh.

A major change is the fact that Sinn Fein and the Democratic Unionist Party are now in the ascendant in their communities. For years, David Trimble of the Ulster Unionist Party backpedaled furiously when it came to crunch time in order to satiate those followers of the Reverend Ian Paisley and hardliners in his own party who wanted no deal with the devil on the other side.

Now it is the Paisleyites who are in the ascendancy, and if a deal can be forged there is no one to outflank them. There has been an intriguing series of mixed messages from the Paisleyites over the past few months. 

On the one hand, deputy leader Peter Robinson and Ulster Unionist Party refugee Jeffrey Donaldson have given assurances that they will not be found wanting if the deal on offer meets their requirements.

On the other hand, the true Paisleyite wing has made clear that they want heavy restrictions and caveats placed on any progress. To no one’s surprise this faction is led by the Reverend Paisley himself, who has steadfastly denounced any idea of a deal with Sinn Fein.

But the Reverend Ian is not the leader he once was. Weakened by ill health and advancing age, he does not hold the type of sway he once did over the party he founded. There seems little doubt that Robinson and other more moderate politicians want to forge ahead and install a government that would see them in the key roles.

The role of the two governments will be absolutely critical. Blair must make clear that if he can do a deal with Sinn Fein he will forge ahead with or without the Paisleyites. The Irish government too must ensure that the British deal in good faith on this topic, and understand the realities of the situation if they once again succumb to the Orange Card. 

The presence of American envoy Reiss, who could act as a much needed conduit and advisor for all sides, is also a very positive development that may well be crucial in creating a lasting peace. 

Let us hope we are about to witness something truly historic. The world will be watching and hoping.