By Tom Deignan

PROMINENT political analysts Steve and Cokie Roberts were recently asked by Parade magazine to identify key voting groups as the brutal 2006 election season draws to a close. Along with Hispanics, independents and married moms, the husband and wife team also identified “white Catholics,” of which Irish Americans are arguably the largest voting bloc.

“As ethnic Catholics left behind their immigrant roots and old neighborhoods,” they wrote, “many shifted from the Democrats to the GOP. As Democratic icon Tip O’Neill used to say, ‘Many of our members are now rich enough to be Republicans.’”

Team Roberts also identified the Pennsylvania Senate race as a particularly crucial one to watch. That’s where abortion rights opponent Bob Casey is trying to unseat one of the most conservative Republicans in the Senate, Rick Santorum.

As a long profile published in The New Yorker a few months back put it, Casey is the son of Robert P. Casey, “an Irish Democrat pol of the old school, the son and grandson of miners, and who championed labor and believed in government as a beneficent force. He was also pro-life.”

Indeed, as both voters and candidates, Irish Americans are expected to play a pivotal role when the winners and losers of 2006 are sorted out next week.

That’s especially true in New York State, where Irish pols are in tough scandal-plagued races.

In recent weeks, the political world has finally become familiar with the bow-tied Irish American Republican candidate for New York State comptroller. Heretofore unknown Chris Callaghan now has a fighting chance against incumbent Democrat Alan Hevesi, only because Hevesi is mired in a scandal over his use of a state employee to chauffeur his ailing wife.

Callaghan, who refers to his Irish roots in speeches and literature, is still seen as a sub-par candidate, but is in a much better position to compete then he was before the Hevesi scandal exploded.

Incidentally, it was Callaghan who initiated the charges against Hevesi, by reporting the potential misuse of taxpayer funds on a voter hotline that Hevesi himself set up.

Also in the headlines for unfortunate reasons is Buffalo Congressman Tom Reynolds, a member of the Irish American Republicans group and chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

It was in that leadership role that Reynolds came under fire when the Mark Foley scandal broke. Congressman Foley has been accused of sexually propositioning young political assistants in Washington. Reynolds has since apologized for not doing more about Foley’s behavior.

Reynolds may still eke out a win. He too is quoting O’Neill these days.

“I believe all politics is local,” Reynolds said last week.

Congressmen Peter King and John Sweeney are two more New York Republicans with ties to the Irish community who are fighting tough re-election battles.

Sweeney, a Republican who comes out of an Irish American union background, has been targeted as vulnerable by Democrats because of President Bush’s sinking poll numbers in Sweeney’s upstate district.

A New York Times analysis in the summer said that Sweeney was “on the defensive,” but he’s expected to win, and remain a power player in state politics where he’s famous for pulling no punches.

He may even run for governor down the road.

Earlier this year, Sweeney was involved in a nasty feud with New York Governor George Pataki loyalist Patrick McCarthy, who some accused of assisting Sweeney’s Democratic opponent Kirsten Gillibrand.

King is also expected to win, though he could perhaps do without editorial endorsements such as the one he received from the New York Post this week, which said, “King’s days as the Irish Republican Army’s go-to guy on Capitol Hill seem long gone.”

Democrats, meanwhile, still have hopes for Chris Murphy in Connecticut. A 32-year-old state senator, Murphy has run a tougher-than-expected campaign against 12-term Republican incumbent Nancy L. Johnson.

In the end, the Irish Catholic vote is so pivotal because it is no longer reliably Democratic.

As Steve and Cokie Roberts note, “If Catholics flirt with their old flame, they’re not ready to go steady with the Democrats. As Bush focused this fall on the threat of terrorism, his ratings soared with this critical swing vote.”

Polls open next Tuesday at 6 a.m.

(Contact Sidewalks at tomdeignan@earthlink.net.)