By John Spain

THIS week you will be reading a lot of over-the-top reports on the election results here, reports about the triumph of Sinn Fein and the humiliation of Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern’s government. 

And yes, it was a good day for the gunmen and their pals and a woeful day for Fianna Fail. But before we all get either too suicidal or too ecstatic, a few facts may help to keep things in perspective. 

There were actually three votes on the same day here last Friday — the citizenship referendum, the local elections and the European elections. The referendum, which was passed by a huge majority, is not an indicator of party support. So only the results in the other two votes are relevant in deciding how well any party is doing. 

Looking at these figures on a national basis for each party, it has to be said straight away that this was a disastrous result for Fianna Fail, with the party recording its lowest vote since the 1920s. But it also has to be said that the main parties here still tower above the new arrivals, like the slightly democratic Sinn Fein. 

The traditional Big Three parties in Irish politics, Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labor, between them pulled in 70% of the national vote, with Sinn Fein, the Greens, the Progressive Democrats and others sharing the remaining 30%. 

The national vote figure for each party was as follows — Fianna Fail 32%, Fine Gael 27%, Labor 11%, Sinn Fein 8%, Greens 4%, the Progressive Democrats 4%, others 11%. 

Or to put it another way, Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Labor, the Progressive Democrats and the Greens, all of whom have made it clear that they will never share power with Sinn Fein while the IRA still exists, have nearly 80% of the vote. If you add in the independents who are absolutely opposed to Sinn Fein while it has a military wing, that comes up to around 90%. 

So before anyone jumps to the conclusion that this vote indicates a widespread acceptance of Sinn Fein as a party deserving of a place in the Irish democratic system, even though their private army still exists and its involvement in criminal behavior still continues, we need to think about these figures carefully. Clearly, the big picture is that the vast majority of voters here still will not vote Sinn Fein while the IRA exists. 

That said, it’s not been a great week for those who believe in democracy here. The undeniable fact is that the Sinn Fein vote increased substantially, up 4.9%, while the Fianna Fail vote fell by 7.2%. All the other parties had only minor movements in their vote share. 

There are obvious reasons for the Sinn Fein vote. The economy is doing so well again here that one of our top economists last week said that the Celtic Tiger is back. But there are whole areas around our cities where drugs and deprivation are rife, and Sinn Fein is masterful at exploiting the anti-government skepticism in these areas. 

Sinn Fein’s old style socialist policies are simplistic and direct, appealing to those who imagine that there can be simple answers to the complex problems of a modern society. 

Plus there is the Northern factor, with a lot of young radical voters here (who were not even born when The Troubles started in 1969) dazzled by the charismatic Gerry Adams. This Sinn Fein pseudo-revolutionary mix is powerfully attractive to young voters in working class areas in the south.

Older voters here know better. They know that, in spite of appearances, Sinn Fein are the servants of the IRA, that the IRA Army Council is the supreme body in the so-called Republican movement. They know that this movement Sinn Fein is part of is up to its neck in intimidation, beatings, even murder, in the south as well as in the North. They know that a vote for Sinn Fein gives political legitimacy to a movement that, as well as the violence, makes huge profits from protection rackets, illegal waste disposal businesses, drug-running, smuggling and racketeering on the border. 

It is worrying that such a party can reach even an 8% share of the national vote. And the government — and Fianna Fail in particular — have only themselves to blame. 

They turned a blind eye to the Republican reality for too long, in a laudable but so far failed attempt to get the Republicans to totally abandon violence for good and thereby put it up to Reverend Ian Paisley to save the Northern settlement. 

The aim was honorable, but Sinn Fein simply soaked up the adulatory spotlight shone on it here over the last few years, built up its profile and did nothing to bring the IRA to an end. 

Now, as these elections have shown, it’s a dangerous genie — an armed party masquerading as a democratic one — that won’t be put back in the bottle easily. 

Fianna Fail and even the Labor Party must carry most of the blame for this situation. Their decline in the working class areas around the cities has created a vacuum into which Sinn Fein have moved. 

The result has been the virtual domination by Sinn Fein of these big working-class estates, what one newspaper here this week called the “Ulsterization” of Dublin.

How to cope with this syndrome is a big problem for the established parties. But although there is shock in the government parties, there is no sign of outright panic so far. 

The reason is simple. These elections were for local council seats and European Parliament seats. The general election, for seats in the next Dail (Parliament) and to elect the next government here, is still over two years away. 

Traditionally, every government here gets a kicking at the mid-term point in its term of office. And there is plenty of time to repair the damage.

The problem is that the result for Fianna Fail is much worse than expected, with the party losing around 20% of its council seats around the country. And with two European seats (one north and one south) now to add to its tally of council seats in the south, the result for Sinn Fein has been better than expected. To make it worse, the Sinn Fein success in the south is nearly all at the expense of Fianna Fail. 

What it boils down to for Fianna Fail is that the party has suffered one of the worst election results in its history, with voters giving the party a mid-term battering which will cost it up to 80 local government and two European seats.

Ahern has already reacted by admitting that it was a bad defeat, ordering a total review of government policy and saying that he will reshape his government in a September reshuffle. He has to fight off the mounting challenge not just from the increasingly confident Sinn Fein, but also from a resurgent Fine Gael that did very well this time. 

Despite increased speculation that he could become president of the European Commission at a salary of around Œ6 million over five years, Ahern is understood to be determined to stay and lead Fianna Fail in its bid for a third general election success in a row, two years from now. 

And if the economy still keeps performing as well as it is this year, then that is achievable. People vote very differently in general elections than they do in local elections, as the last half a dozen elections here have shown. So there is no sign of panic in Fianna Fail just yet, although the threat to the party from Sinn Fein is now very real. 

And, ironically, it could get worse for Fianna Fail if what we all want becomes a reality. If the IRA takes the final step and abandons arms, leaving the national stage to Sinn Fein, then the success in the North that Fianna Fail has worked so hard to achieve could yet be its undoing. The payback in votes for Sinn Fein in the south would be enormous.

But then Sinn Fein would need real detailed policies instead of just slogans and attitudes. They would have to wake up to the fact that the Berlin Wall is down. 

Their success might be short-lived when people see that they don’t really have any solutions after all, something that is likely to start happening even at local council level in the next two years. 

Part of the problem for Ahern recently is that he has been too busy to look after the home patch, especially in the last six months when Ireland has held the EU presidency. Top of Ahern’s immediate agenda is the effort to secure a deal on the new EU Constitution Treaty in Brussels this Thursday and Friday. To do so would be a huge feather in his cap and would give him a massive standing on the international stage.

He has an even trickier appointment at the end of next week, when he will host President Bush for the EU-U.S. summit at Dromoland Castle in Co. Clare. No doubt all the new Sinn Fein councilors will be out protesting, since the party has been totally opposed to the war in Iraq. But more on all that next week. 

For the moment, it’s enough that Fianna Fail has paid the price for giving the gunmen a break. And they can’t say I didn’t warn them.