Adams Optimism on Paisley

GERRY Adams is taking an optimistic view of the Reverend Ian Paisley and the prospects for a deal in Northern Ireland by the November 24 deadline.

Coming from Adams that is a truly positive sign. The Sinn Fein leader, who has skillfully handled every possible crisis since the IRA called their ceasefire in 1994, is not a man given to overly optimistic pronouncements.

In New York last week, Adams made it clear that there could be more than one way to skin a cat come November when the pressure really comes on.

Adams was in town to take part in the Clinton Global Initiative Conference of world leaders. It was interesting to note how many times Clinton referred to the successful Northern Ireland peace process in comments during interviews.

Now there is a final piece of work to be done. Obviously, the preferred method would be for Paisley to finally come to the negotiating table and work a deal with Sinn Fein and the two governments about the future of power-sharing in the North.

There has been speculation in Ireland recently that Paisley might do the deal and then retire. News that he or his church purchased a lavish retirement house outside Belfast has fueled such rumors.

Another way could be for Paisley to essentially refuse to do a deal, yet join the government anyway under the guise of keeping an eye on Sinn Fein and preventing the two governments from doing a deal on cross border cooperation that could come close to joint authority.

Paisley might just get away with that, avoiding the sell out charge he has aimed so successfully and endlessly at other political leaders of unionism over his lifetime.

Policing the Key

IF Sinn Fein get into power the key issue will be how they will deal with policing. Attempts to have them sign on to the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) before a deal will be unsuccessful.

However, if they do join the government the likelihood is that very soon after a Sinn Fein Ard Fheis (convention) would be called to vote on the issue of policing.

That vote would be no sure thing. On most of the key decisions the Sinn Fein rank and file have trusted the leadership to deliver and backed their policy overwhelmingly.

Policing, however, remains the toughest issue of all left in the peace process. Memories of what the old Royal Ulster Constabulary were capable of, and the fact that many senior members of that force still serve in the new PSNI, makes any deal difficult.

It is an issue that the Sinn Fein leadership cannot just win 60-40, but need to score an overwhelming triumph on. Adams has gained a well-deserved reputation as a very conservative operator, only moving when his party is 90% or more behind him.

Does he have that kind of backing on policing from the Sinn Fein rank and file? Probably not at this point, which makes it even more important that the deal to go into government is seen as a very positive one by the Nationalist community.

Who Will Succeed Paisley?

PART of the problem with trying to figure out Ian Paisley’s next move is the fact that the moderates within his party appear to be on the outs, but no one is quite certain.

The Democratic Unionist Party has always been a glass darkly, and at present there is little doubt that after Paisley there will be a major struggle for the party leadership between those who are pragmatic politicians first, and the born again tendency headed by Paisley’s son Ian Junior.

On the pragmatic side are politicians such as Peter Robinson and Ulster Unionist Party refugee Jeffrey Donaldson. Paisley Junior is flanked by the Reverend William McCrea and other religion first advocates.

If the Robinson faction triumphs, there seems little doubt that a functioning government for Northern Ireland could be set up. However, if the Paisley Junior group wins out then we could be facing a very long period indeed of no political movement in Northern Ireland.

Paisley himself, of course, may be the final arbiter on that, but as he has aged he seems less involved in party matters, especially after some health scares.

The question of succession is essentially that of the future of Northern Ireland. If young Paisley is ascendant there is little hope of shared government in the foreseeable future.

Fianna Fail/ Sinn Fein Alliance?

OF course, the other key happening for Sinn Fein in the next year is the election in the Irish Republic which is expected around April. The party seems poised to make seat gains, but how many is not certain.

Currently the party has five seats and is expected to double that quite easily. However, early predictions that the party would have a truly breakthrough election and would become close to being the third largest party in the state now seem unlikely.

Part of the reason is that Fianna Fail leader and current Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern has played it very cleverly, knowing that Sinn Fein votes will come out of his party’s hide. He has quietly moved Fianna Fail into a more Republican mode, highlighted by the 90th anniversary celebration of the Easter 1916 Rising last year.

Post-election, while Fianna Fail have stated they will not share power with Sinn Fein, that scenario could occur if Sinn Fein are in power in the North and are legitimate in all respects.

After all, it would be hard to argue that Fianna Fail could not line up in government with them as part of a broad coalition if Ian Paisley has by then agreed to do so.