The British Elections

Bookmakers in England are betting that British Prime Minister Tony Blair will be returned with a majority of less than 75 seats, massive in most British elections, but it may sound the death knell for the British leader.

The reason is that Blair has far more to fear from within his own Labor Party than he does from the hapless opposition Conservative Party. The Iraq decision incensed so many left-leaning Labor MPs that they have been biding their time to deliver what could possibly be a mortal blow for Blair.

Blair, of course, has said he is standing down after his third term, but it appears his archrival Gordon Brown may well move against him before that with the help of scores of backbench MPs who claim Blair has grown tired and arrogant in power. 

Opinion polls this election show that Labor would have an over 200 seat majority if Brown were leading the party.

It reminds me of Winston Churchill’s famous statement of advice to a young politician. Referring to life in the House of Commons Churchill stated, “Never forget that the opposition is sitting opposite you, but your enemies are seated behind you.”

It’s a lesson Blair may well be about to learn as the May 5 election date finally comes. He has done a remarkable job in emasculating the Tories, in helping bring peace to Northern Ireland, in keeping the British economy booming, but in the end of the day Iraq may well be his downfall.

Brown in the Wings

Talk of Blair’s lame duck status inevitably leads to speculation about what kind of Prime Minster Gordon Brown would be, especially as it relates to the issue of Northern Ireland.

Brown has said very little on the subject, but his Scottish Protestant background would certainly indicate that he would not be as much in sync with Nationalist concerns as Blair was. 

As against that, Brown has watched with admiration how Blair has won some of the best headlines of his time in office from the issue, around the time of the Good Friday Agreement. Brown would be hardly likely to try and ignore the issue.

Good Riddance To Howard

The certain defeat of the Tories will remove Michael Howard, one of the nastiest pieces of work in British politics — think Congressman Tom DeLay without the charm.

Irish people have much reason to cheer his inevitable departure. When he was home secretary under Margaret Thatcher, Howard was one of the most mean-spirited occupants of that office, which is quite an achievement. 

He made it particularly hard for Irish prisoners in British jails to get access to lawyers and receive family visits, and often transferred them to other locations on the spur of the moment. 

As one of his former colleagues stated, “There is something of the night about Michael.” 

Now more than ever, as he heads for well-deserved oblivion, the description holds true.

Patten a Lost Leader

What do Michael Howard, Ian Duncan Smith and William Hague all have in common? They were all leaders of the Tory Party post-Thatcher and unable to perform at a minimally effective level against Tony Blair. All of them doomed the Tories to certain defeat.

They also shared a strong right of center political foundation, something inculcated by the years of power under Margaret Thatcher.

The British, however, have made it clear they had seen enough of Thatcherism for a very long time. However, the Tories seem incapable of selecting a leader from the moderate middle. 

Their great white hope a few years back was Chris Patten, an outstanding politician who went on to do remarkable work on policing in Northern Ireland. 

But Patten was too much of a soft moderate for the Tory hard-liners. Long may they continue to choose leaders such as Howard and continue their slide into oblivion.

Thatcher’s Bad Ending

What must Margaret Thatcher be thinking as she witnesses the near extinction of her beloved Tories? 

She led them to an unprecedented four terms in power just a few years ago, and now they are fighting for their life to remain the second largest party, with some polls showing them barely ahead of the Liberal Democrats.

Thatcher is long retired and not in the best of health, but the election result on Thursday may well worsen her condition. All that and her son Mark now excluded from the United States because of that little matter of the coup he tried to foment in Equatorial Guinea a few months back. 

Maggie is sure ending up her time on earth on a sour note.

Trimble Courting Disaster

If David Trimble loses his parliamentary seat in this week’s election he will be the first British party leader since Ramsay MacDonald lost his in 1918 as leader of the Labor Party.

McDonald later went on to become prime minister. Trimble, who has already effectively filled that post in Northern Ireland, has little opportunity for a political comeback.

His place in history would be secure for signing the Good Friday Agreement, but he may well be remembered as just another scalp for the Reverend Ian Paisley, who has seen off more Ulster Unionist leaders than anyone else in history. 

Trimble, however, could still surprise and hold on to his seat. He has shown such Houdini-like skills before.