Surprise IRA Did Not Stand Down

There was a great expectation in some Irish American circles that the Gerry Adams speech last week would be followed up with quick action by the IRA, and that they would announce that they would stand down.

The thinking was that the Republican movement would not let an offer like that hang out there very long, that it was good electoral politics for Sinn Fein, and that British Prime Minister Tony Blair would certainly welcome an announcement during a hard fought general election campaign.

There was also a view that the U.S. visit by Martin McGuinness, Sinn Fein’s chief negotiator, would be hugely successful if there was an announcement about disbandment.

No such IRA announcement was forthcoming, however, but McGuinness still arrived in the U.S. with a much stronger hand than Adams did during the St. Patrick’s Day period.

The McCartney story has cooled off dramatically and the Adams speech has once again passed the initiative back to Sinn Fein after a long period where they appeared snake bitten as more and more negative headlines and events plagued them.

The party will still have to deliver the IRA sometime in the near future however, and there can be no going back from the Adams speech stating that politics is the only way forward. We can expect some interesting times right after the British elections in May.

How the IRA Will Disarm

If the IRA does disband they will certainly not use that word as it has become a stick to beat them with among numerous commentators and critics. It is much more likely they would stand down, which is what an army does when hostilities cease.

It is quite likely, then, that they will begin their decommissioning using the offices of long suffering General John De Chastelain, the head of the decommissioning commission who has resembled the Maytag repair man on many occasions, standing around with little to do.

De Chastelain, however, has stuck with his brief to oversee the dismantling of the paramilitary weaponry. Now it looks like it may finally happen for the Canadian general who has become a fixture of any settlement in the North.

NY Times Faux Pas

Sad to note that The New York Times recently relied on Paul Bew, the academic turned David Trimble advisor, who likes to posture as an uninvolved expert on the North.

Bew was quoted on the day after the Adams speech making negative comment about its contents. Bew was identified as a leading academic.

He is certainly that, but much more of course — supposedly first among equals as Trimble’s key advisor. Bew has shaped much of Trimble’s niggardly response to the Good Friday Agreement and has been with him on crucial occasions when his leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party barely survived.

The Times never mentioned that, though, and we can assume that Bew did not either. One would expect better from both.

Who Will McGuinness Meet?

Who will Martin McGuinness meet when he is in the U.S. this week? Obviously the White House special envoy Mitchell Reiss will be a key meeting, as will the normal run of congressional representatives such as Peter King and Richie Neal who have been stalwarts on this issue for decades.

However, will he meet any senators such as Ted Kennedy, who snubbed Gerry Adams over St. Patrick’s Day, or Chris Dodd, who did so in a less visible fashion?

Sinn Fein’s position is clear. Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern met with Adams in Washington, and so did Reiss on behalf of the Bush administration. Given those meetings Sinn Fein felt that the U.S. senators should have met with them too.

Durkan in a Dogfight

Martin McGuinness can afford to come to America this week despite the fact that he is involved in an election back home. However, McGuinness will have little problem in Mid Ulster where he is expected to skate through.

Not so for his hometown of Derry, where a huge dogfight is developing between Mark Durkan, leader of the SDLP, and Mitchell McLoughlin of Sinn Fein.

The race may well come down to how many Unionists hold their noses and decide to cross over and vote for Durkan rather than vote for their own side. If Durkan gets a sufficiently large number of such votes he should win.

In the U.S. recently Durkan was quite confident that he would take the seat held by his old mentor John Hume for so many years. 

The great unknown, however, is the fact that Hume is no longer a player in the city he made his own. How much of his vote will transfer to Durkan will also be a key factor. Sinn Fein are quietly confident that not enough will do so to stop them pulling off a major shock.