Key Test for Immigration Bill

THE future of immigration reform may well rest on a Republican primary race in Utah on June 27.

According to Wall Street Journal columnist John Fund, a key GOP congressman may lose his seat for his pro-immigration views, a fact that would send an immediate shiver up the spines of those Republican representatives who are pro-immigrant.

The man in trouble is Congress-man Chris Cannon of Provo, Utah, who has been one of the most outspoken House members on the need for an accommodation on the undocumented.

Illegal immigration is the key issue in the primary race, and Cannon faces a tough opponent who is prepared to outspend him heavily in an attempt to get elected.

John Jacob, a wealthy businessman, has foc-used on Cannon’s liberal statements on immigration and be-lieves he has an excellent opportunity to knock him off.

He is using a video that was shot when Cannon was honored by a Mexican American group for his support of immigration reform. If Cannon is defeated other pro-immigrant members of the House may well bolt and change sides.

Cannon is an obvious target. Conservative activist Grover Norquist has called the Utah congressman “the president’s strongest ally in maintaining a pro-immigrant GOP.”

Bush Back Pushing Plan

SPEAKING of the president, his pollster Matthew Dowd this week released a survey to all Republican candidates showing that immigration reform that includes tough border measures and a compassionate approach to the undocumented is a huge winner with independents and moderate Republ-icans. However, that message appears to be unheard right now among the right wing group that dominates Congress.

That is probably why Bush is once again taking to the airwaves on Thursday night to push for an accommodation between the senate and the House on this issue.

Much more is at stake for the president that just this bill, however. If he loses this one he is immediately tagged a very lame duck president indeed, even with two years left in office.

Which is why the stakes are very high for Bush and everyone else on this issue. If Bush manages to get a bill passed it will clearly show that he has still got clout with Congress.

If he fails Bush is essentially replaying his defeat on Social Security reform which never got off the ground and first revealed his vulnerabilities.

Time Lapse May Be the Key

IF there is to be a point of agreement between the House and Senate versions of the bill it might well involve a different time frame for the two aspects of the legalization border security and legalization being introduced.

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist and Deputy Minority Leader Richard Durbin both seemed to indicate last week that if border security was done first that the bill would have a far greater chance of passage.

It has also been hinted by the White House that President Bush sees this as a possible way forward also in other words, appease the hard right by beginning border security and placate the centrists by introducing the other provisions a little later.

Of course, how long that gap would be is the critical point. If it is only a few months then both sides could likely live with it. However, if it involved some major time period then it is hard to see how it could be successful.

Hillary Under Pressure

THERE was an intriguing poll by Zogby this week which showed that Senator Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable on the Iraq war among Democratic supporters.

While Clinton enjoys a huge 74% approval rating among registered Democrats in New York State, that number sinks rapidly when she is compared to an anti-Iraq war candidate.

Indeed, according to Zogby, Clinton would only win 38% to 32% over an anti-war candidate were one to materialize before the Demo-cratic primary.

It seems that the Iraq war is a toxic issue in American politics just now. Clinton clearly will not be overly bothered by it during this campaign, but in a White House run it would be easy to see an anti-war candidate such as Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin make considerable strides.

Antrim Fail The Test

THE New York GAA and its chairman Seamus Dooley have every right to feel bitterly disappointed that the Ulster Council has refused to go ahead and play the Ulster hurling final in the U.S., as New York had requested.

After New York had beaten Derry at Gaelic Park in the Bronx, it became obvious that the team could not travel back to Belfast to play in the final. They requested the game be shifted to either New York or Boston.

Antrim, the team they were supposed to play, refused, however, which was a great disappointment.

When you think of all the help that exile groups in America have given to the GAA over the years, especially to teams coming through to play as well as doing fundraising for many club grounds back home, the Ulster GAA decision is hard to fathom.

Surely they could have found a time later in the year to play the game to help out the GAA here that is so beleaguered by falling numbers of players and crackdowns on immigration. Sadly, Antrim missed a great chance to be heroes.