U.S. Ambassador to Depart?

STATE Department sources are saying that a major reshuffle of ambassadors in the near future is likely as the Bush administration reaches the halfway point in its final term.

It now appears likely that Ambassador James Kenny will be among those who will be returning home a big blow to Ireland and Irish America as the Chicago-based businessman has been a very popular and hard working figure in Ireland during his time there.

Kenny replaced Richard Egan, the billionaire businessman who, to put it mildly, hardly distinguished himself in the Dublin post. Indeed, Egan was widely disliked and it was hardly surprising that he returned home at the first opportunity.

Kenny, a construction magnate in Chicago with close ties to Democratic Mayor Richard Daley, was the surprise choice to replace Egan, but it soon became obvious that he was cut from a different cloth.

Kenny was exactly the opposite — a man so popular in Ireland that he overcame the dislike and disdain for the Bush presidency which is so prevalent in Europe.

However, it is no secret that there are many Bush hangers-on still thirsting for an ambassadorial appointment, and no doubt one will be coming to Dublin in the near future.

Kenny, however, may well stay as long as possible, especially given his important role in the North and his continued support of the peace process.

With a November deadline for seeing the Assembly back up and running, it is known that the powers that be in Ireland and Britain would like Kenny to stay until then.

There is no guarantee of that, of course, and it is quote possible that a perfectly good replacement will be named. However, he or she will have a long way to go to match the Chicago businessman’s popularity.

Who Would Replace Kenny?

NEWS of an ambassador’s likely departure sets up a wonderful guessing game of who the next U.S. ambassador to Ireland might be.

There are a few key Bush loyalists who could have the job in the morning. Chief among them is Ed Gillespie, former chairman of the GOP and a trusted aide and confidante to the president who recently shepherded through Congress the two Supreme Court nominations.

Gillespie has very close ties to Ireland and has often visited his father’s native Donegal, as well as being a frequent visitor to the Irish Embassy in Washington, D.C.

However, he is making so much money these days as a lobbyist that it is hard to see him giving that up.

Another shoo-in would be Tommy Thompson, former secretary of health and human services and another person very proud of his Irish heritage.

Thompson has been spoken of as a likely candidate to run again for governor of Wisconsin, but that is now considered unlikely. Ireland might be a nice consolation prize, though.

Another candidate could be Bob Riley, governor of Alabama who faces a tough re-election race that he might lose. Riley has expressed interest in the job in the past.

On the business front Joe Murphy, chairman of Country Bank in Manhattan as well as a major construction magnate and Irish booster, might be in the frame. Murphy has been a massive giver to Republican candidates over the years and is very well thought of in Republican circles.

Whoever it is will have a tough act to follow after Kenny, no question about that. Along with former Clinton ambassador to Ireland Jean Kennedy Smith, he has made the greatest impression in the past two decades or so.

Highlights for Kenny

DURING St. Patrick’s Day this year Kenny was asked in a White House blog forum what his favorite memories of his Irish visit were. Here is his reply.

“ I’d have to say that there are many, but two particularly stand out in my mind. The first was when President and Mrs. Bush visited for the U.S.-E.U. Summit in June 2004. The summit was one of the most successful we’ve had in the last 10 years and I was proud to show the President and Mrs. Bush the great country of Ireland.

“The second was when I was able to visit the town of Swinford in Co. Mayo to see the home where my grandfather was born. The hospitality extended to me by my new extended family is something I will always cherish. When my grandfather immigrated to America in 1907, I don’t think he ever could have imagined that his grandson would return to Ireland as the U.S. ambassador.”

Another Kenny Performs Well

SPEAKING of Kennys, it is only a few months since Irish opposition leader Enda Kenny of Fine Gael was in the U.S., but his electoral prospects have greatly increased since then.

Kenny is here this week to speak to the US-Ireland Council and will also meet with the Irish community at a special reception hosted by the Irish Consulate.

Recent events in Ireland have greatly boosted Kenny’s chances to become the next taoiseach (prime minister) in the general election which is likely to be held about a year from now.

Two opinion polls in major Irish newspapers showed that if the election were held now, Kenny and his coalition partners would likely win narrowly.

That was before last week’s debacle when a convicted child sex offender was freed, leading to huge problems for the government. Kenny’s attacking the government on the issue was one of his finest moments in parliament according to observers.

No doubt Kenny knows that there is still a long way to go to the next election, and much can happen in the meantime. In the short term, however, the Fine Gael leader, widely criticized for his leadership style at times, can be quietly satisfied that he is leading his party effectively at a critical time.

Bertie Sparkles In New York

JUST how difficult it may be for Kenny was on display last week at the residence of the Irish Consul General Tim O’Connor in New York.

Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern was in town for a UN summit on AIDS and was guest of honor at an Irish community function hosted by O’Connor.

Ahern is as naturally gifted a politician as Bill Clinton which is saying something, and he charmed all present with his easy manner and self deprecating humor.

Amazing at a time when President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s popularity ratings are in the cellar, Ahern continues to be the most popular Irish political leader even though he has been in power longer than either of those men. He will be a tough nut to crack in the upcoming election despite what the present polls say.