GOP Leaders Still Against Bill

DESPITE the huge numbers marching and demonstrating across the U.S. on Monday, it seems that the Republican leadership in the House is taking a very hard line on any immigration bill that offers a path to a green card.

As reported in The Washington Post on Monday, the House leadership, with the possible exception of House Speaker Dennis Hastert, is threatening to ignore appeals from President Bush to allow a version of the proposed Senate bill to come out of a House/Senate conference.

Most experts now believe that the Senate bill will pass sometime before Memorial Day and then the mother of all battles will begin when the date of the House/Senate conference is announced.

The reason that the House leadership cites in the Washington Post is extensive support back home in their conservative districts for holding the line on a border security only bill along the lines of the Sensenbrenner/King bill which was passed last year.

Unlike senators who represent entire states where there is almost by definition large Hispanic enclaves, House members have gerrymandered their districts, on both sides of the aisle, to ensure that they only have the strongest support possible for their political views.

Thus, Republican leadership sources say that they have little to lose in terms of the folks back home by presenting a united face against any liberalization of the immigration laws.

The other factor is the spent political capital of President Bush. During his first term, and in the aftermath of September 11, Bush got everything he wanted from the House with few questions asked.

Now, however, as his poll numbers go south and a tricky election looms, House members are not nearly as afraid of the once all powerful White House political machine.

In addition, Republican members who went back home for the Easter recess report that immigration is by far the most hot button issue among their constituents. Interestingly, Democrats reported differently, saying that Iraq and oil prices had far higher priority.

Despite a recent poll showing that Hispanics at present would vote for Democratic candidates by a whopping 55% to 22% with the rest undecided, Republicans in the House may well seek to doom the immigration bill rather than upset many in their districts.

It seems an incredibly shortsighted tactic, given that overall the impact of appearing anti-Hispanic would be huge for the party, but this is a very conservative House leadership who may well try to take that risk.

That is where President Bush would come in. He has told confidantes that he will not get involved until a Senate bill is passed and the Senate/House conference is set.

It appears he may need to use all his remaining political clout to persuade the House leaders that not passing immigration reform this year would be disastrous for the party.

Lou Dobbs and the Red Scare

LEAVE it to CNN analyst Lou Dobbs and the New York Post to twist the immigration marches in such a way as to leave them unrecognizable for what they were, desperate fathers, mothers and families seeking a slice of the American dream and an end to exploitation.

Dobbs, who has been consistently close to racist on this issue, now sees a red menace as well. He told Good Morning America that it was no coincidence that the marches took place on May Day which, he noted darkly, is celebrated in many countries as a socialist holiday.

It is a while since we’ve had the “Reds Under the Bed” scare, especially since the fall of Russian Communism, but Lou was probably dying to resurrect the notion of Stalinist hordes, marching all over America.

The New York Post, which despite the fact that much of its readership must be Hispanic, has adopted a very hostile line to the marches. On Tuesday the paper was in full flight with conspiracy theories too.

They saw the hidden hand of an organization called ANSWER (Act Now to Stop War and Racism) behind the successful marches, an utterly outlandish claim but nothing new for a Murdoch media outlet.

Where Terrorists Came In

BY the way, isn’t it time someone pointed out where the terrorists to date have come from? The September 11 hijackers all flew in on legal passports, the bomber who tried to blow up Los Angeles Airport tried to come through the Canadian border, and Timothy McVeigh – well, he came from Buffalo in the good old USA, and no doubt would approve of the Minutemen.

Of course you can’t mention those facts to the right wingers. It is true that drug and people smugglers use the Mexican border but as far as we can tell, no terrorists have actually been smuggled across.

Getting control of the border is the right thing to do, but demonizing an entire race of people along the way is plain wrong. Thankfully, that reality appears to have hit home in America in recent months.

McCain’s Gesture

WE featured the story of Mary Brennan and her brother Michael last week who lost their brother Trevor in an horrific accident in Ireland but could not go home for the funeral.

One of those who heard about the Brennan’s dilemma was Senator John McCain. who took time out of an incredibly busy schedule to call Mary and leave condolences and assure her that he would do everything he could to help win legalization for the Irish in the future.

It was a typically generous gesture by a politician who more than any other exemplifies the best in the American character. His telling gesture was yet another example of that empathy.