Is King in Trouble?

IS Congressman Peter King now in trouble in his congressional district on Long island?

Newsday reported on Saturday that a new poll shows the seven-term incumbent leading by only two points, 48% to 46%, over his little known opponent, Nassau County legislator David Mejias.

King was quick to shoot down the poll’s findings, stating that his internal poll numbers showed him well ahead. However, the Mejias camp said the poll confirmed what they had been finding from their own campaigning.

King says ethnic voters such as Irish and Italians who make up a large part of the electorate will support him when it counts. Doubtless, however, he has damaged some Irish support with his very hard line on helping the undocumented become legal. An Irish Lobby for Immigration Reform meeting in Long Island earlier this year attracted over 250 voters.

Both King and Newsday pointed out that the poll was an automatically computer generated one, where a call is placed by a computer and a respondent is asked to state specifically which candidate he or she supports. Opponents claim it is far less scientific than those done by live person polling.

However, there is much dispute on that fact. The Rasmussen Reports polling firm, which nailed the presidential election last time more than any other, does only computer generated polling, as do some other leading firms.

It would hardly be surprising that King is not headed for a runaway win in a year which sees Republicans in trouble all over the country, but particularly in New York state where the top of the Democratic ticket, Eliot Spitzer for governor and Hillary Clinton for Senate, will likely sweep all before it. Given the bad year for Republicans anyway, many New York state Republicans are fearful in this election cycle.

King’s campaign literature has a strange twist also. It focuses almost entirely on his battle against illegal aliens and terrorism in a constituency where arguably local voters in the wealthy Nassau County suburb are certainly not all that energized on the illegal issue in particular.

King still is the overwhelming favorite to win, but if there is a 1994 type landslide where Republicans all over the country face a massive “throw the bums out” type revolt by voters, then King along with many other presumably safe Republicans could find himself in trouble.

Walsh in Three Debates

CONGRESSMAN Jim Walsh is another Republican facing a tough re-election in his upstate district.

As we reported last week, Walsh’s Democratic opponent Dan Maffei is a former press secretary to Bill Bradley and has run a tough campaign.

Currently, upstate pollsters show Walsh leading narrowly, but most analysts say the race will depend on how bad the anti-incumbent mood is in the country.

Fred Pierce, the political reporter for the Post Standard in Syracuse, currently rates the race a toss-up and told the Irish Voice that he was “very hesitant at this stage to say it will go one way or another.”

Starting this week Walsh, who is the head of the Friends of Ireland in Congress and a deeply respected politician in Irish American circles, will debate his rival three times as the race comes to its climax.

The loss of Walsh would be devastating for the Irish community as he has been an outspoken friend and ally over the past 15 years on critical issues such as Northern Ireland and immigration.

Sensenbrenner Under Scrutiny

CONGRESSMAN James Sensenbrenner of Wisconsin, who drafted the strong anti-immigrant bill which passed the House last year, is facing some troubles of his own in his re-election.

Sensenbrenner is still a shoo-in, but newspaper reports have noted that he allegedly brought stocks in companies that he knew would do well with immigration related contracts even as he was drafting bills leading to tighter reinforcement.

Sensenbrenner has denied the charges, but reports say the heir to the Kotex fortune has definitely had a pattern of investing in companies which do benefit from an immigration crackdown.

Sensenbrenner will step down from his chairmanship of the House Judiciary Committee even if Republicans win the House at the end of January as he is term limited.

However, if you think the crusty Sensenbrenner was a tough pol on immigration matters, his likely successor on Judiciary would be Congressman Lamar Smith, perhaps the most anti-immigrant figure in all of Congress.

Smith, from Texas, has never met an immigrant he liked — one more reason for pro immigration advocates to hope that Democrats take over the House.

Kilroy Is Here

ONE of the more interesting new House representatives could be Mary Jo Kilroy, who is battling Republican incumbent Deborah Pryce in Ohio’s 15th district around Columbus.

Pryce is the number four person in the GOP House leadership, yet seems ripe for the taking by Kilroy, according to recent polls. Kilroy is Franklin County commissioner.

Kilroy’s brother Jack Kilroy is very well known in Irish circles. He was head of Irish Northern Aid for many years in the region and hosted Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams on a number of occasions. Sounds like his sister might be yet another Friend of Ireland if she makes the leap to Washington.