GOP Worried About Polls

SOME well-known Irish American politicians in the Republican Party will be looking at the upcoming races in November with more than a smidgeon of fear.

In New York State Congressman John Sweeney of Saratoga Springs finds himself in a tough re-election battle, one recently moved into the “leaning Republican” column by the Cook Political Report from strongly Republican.

Also in the same boat is Congressman Jim Walsh of Syracuse, head of the Friends of Ireland who continues to find himself in the “leaning Republican” column in his district which narrowly voted for John Kerry during the last presidential election.

Sweeney in particular finds himself in difficulty against a well-financed challenger in Kirsten Gillibrand, an attractive lawyer who has had significant support from Senator Hillary Clinton among others.

The latest edition of National Journal lists Sweeney’s seat as the 25th most endangered in the upcoming election. A large swing to Democrats, as currently being forecast, could certainly put it on the bubble.

Last week the congressman was very public at the Saratoga race track wherehe held two separate receptions, an indication perhaps of his desire to get out and about more.

Meanwhile, Walsh’s race has jumped from 45th most vulnerable to the 39th most on the same list. Walsh, an immensely popular politician among Irish Americans, now faces a tough enough race that has been recharacterized as leaning Republican from likely Republican.

Again, with President Bush’s numbers at only 28% approval in the Northeast and a very popular Democratic gubernatorial vote getter in Eliot Spitzer, any Republican on the ballot must feel some anxiety. For Sweeney and Walsh the anxiety will likely last until Election Day, though Walsh seems the safer of the two.

King Also Sees Some Shift

CONGRESSMAN Peter King has also seen his race shift slightly against him in recent weeks according to the Cook Report, which is the bible of Congress watchers.

King’s seat in Nassau County has gone from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” in the latest polling, reflecting the fact that the Cook people now believe it could become competitive at some point before the election.

The main reason appears to be a new Cooper and Secrest poll of the district which shows that 65% think America is on the wrong track and 56% say that “this part of Long Island” is on the wrong track. The generic congressional preference in the district is 46% Democrat/33% Republican.

Meanwhile, 56% of those polled agreed with this statement: “We need to elect a Democrat to Congress to act as a balance to the Bush administration’s programs and policies.” (31% agreed with the opposite: “We need to elect a Republican to Congress to support the programs and policies of President Bush.”)

All bad news for King, who has been a fearless supporter of both Bush andthe war in recent times. King’s opponent, Nassau County legislator David Mejias, has been hammering away at his opponent, especially over comments King made after Mejias stated that there was a lesson for King in the anti war sentiment in Connecticut which defeated Joe Lieberman.

King’s response was typically strident. “Fortunately, the Third District is not composed of the left-wing bigots who went after Joe Lieberman.” King went on to sing the praises of Lieberman.

However, being so tied to the war and to an unpopular president (30% support in the poll in the district) must cause King some worry as the election looms. While it is highly unlikely he will be defeated and he has a hugefundraising advantage, it is not a sure run thing anymore as the Cook people see it.

Name That Guy

QUICK, who is the following quote from?

“He said they were aware of what was going on behind the scenes through phone tapping and other means. But I think that has been the form of British government activity and Foreign Office activity not only in Northern Ireland but in any situation where there has been division across the world where Britain has had a hand,” he said.

“They did the same in Israel and Palestine — they have told one side one thing and done the opposite. They have done the same in Cyprus, in south Africa, in Hong Kong — everywhere.

“They are not even-handed with politicians either. That is why I think no politician worth their salt can trust an Northern Ireland Office official. They make sure they deal with them, but deal with them very cautiously and with great skepticism.”

Gerry Adams? No, it’s Young Paisley, a/k/a Ian Paisley Junior, in the Belfast Newsletter.

Junior was referring to complaints he had about how the British government were going about their business in Northern Ireland, especially the issue of what they planned to do in November if the Democratic Unionist Party refuse to share power with Sinn Fein.

Strange, isn’t it, that young Paisley ends up sounding more like Gerry Adams than his old man? It just shows you that the Unionist view of the British is just as jaundiced in its own way as the Nationalist one.

Makes you think the Brits might be very happy indeed to get out of the place altogether.

Adams for U.S. Trip

SPEAKING of Adams, the Sinn Fein leader is expected in the U.S. in mid-September, according to sources. It is a good time for Adams to come, given the run up to the November 24 date for a decision on power sharing and the return of the Assembly in the North.

Adams, no doubt, will be briefing Mitchell Reiss, the Bush administration point man on Ireland, while he is here, but it appears there is little that the U.S. government can do to help sort out the situation if the DUP refuse to go into government.

Adams is also likely to brief leading Irish American figures, given the fact that there is an increasing sense in America that the situation in Northern Ireland is essentially settled and little more needs to be done. Adams will surely be trying to change people’s minds on that point.

Arguably, this is the most important moment of all — will the fruits of the Good Friday Agreement be a cross community government or, failing that, what kind of joint authority vehicle will both governments be looking for? The Adams take on those questions will be vital.