Intelligencer

Catholic Vote Still Tied

THE latest New York Times/CBS poll makes interesting reading for its findings on the white Catholic vote. The figures show John Kerry and President George W. Bush neck and neck, with a slight 2% lead for Bush. Kerry has made up significant ground on the president but has certainly not pulled ahead.

The Irish Catholic vote has been hotly contested this election, as we have remarked before. Now less than two weeks before the votes are counted it appears both candidates are steaming towards a dead heat among this demographic — an indication perhaps of the direction of the overall vote too.

The two campaigns are certainly not giving up on chasing this vote down. Kerry has been far more outspoken about his faith and has very publicly attended several Masses. 

In the past week elements of the Catholic Church have certainly gotten involved against the Kerry side, with some prelates coming out and bluntly stating that it would be a sin to vote for Kerry because of his pro-abortion stance.

Then there is the peculiar case of a Los Angeles attorney, a member of a right wing Catholic group who says he solicited a letter from the Vatican which calls for Kerry and other Catholic politicians to be excommunicated as a result of their abortion stands. His efforts made it into a report in The New York Times on Tuesday.

Where will the vote eventually end up? It seems clear that the two men are headed for a rerun of the Bush/Gore vote when they were tied among white Catholics. 

Kerry will hold an advantage among Hispanics which may give him a small edge overall. Like everything else, however, it is too close to call.

Scots Irish Vote A Secret 

THERE was a fascinating piece in The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday of this week entitled “Secret GOP Weapon: the Scots-Irish Vote.” 

It was written by James Webb, a former secretary of the Navy and the author of Born Fighting: How the Scots-Irish Shaped America.

Webb asks why the 30 million Scots Irish “who may well be America’s strongest cultural force” are “so invisible to America’s intellectual elites.”

Webb maintains that there is a difference between the Christian right and the Scots Irish, that country music is their emblem, and that they may have cost Al Gore the election in 2000 by opposing his gun control efforts in Tennessee and West Virginia.

Webb says the secret to attracting the votes of the Scots Irish is “guns, God, flag, opposition to abortion and success in war.” So you can guess which side they are on in this election.

Webb maintains that the Democratic Party is clueless about how to attract this Scots Irish support, but that Republicans have become particularly adept at it. Webb states that Bush’s speeches “have the deliberate balance of a country singer at the Grand Olde Opry” in their appeal to these Scots Irish.

Webb points out that American democracy has its roots in the Scots Irish culture that threw off the hierarchy of the Catholic Church and replaced it with “governing councils of ordinary citizens.” An interesting observation.

Sinn Fein Bandwagon Still Rolling

SINN Fein leader Gerry Adams will shortly be in the U.S. on his annual fundraising tour, and advance word is that it may be a very lucrative one indeed.

Fears that the Sinn Fein bandwagon might have slowed in America because of the hold-ups in the peace process are apparently not true. Indeed, several more large donors have come forward in the past 12 months, and Adams can look forward to replenishing the party coffers in style.

The big question, of course, is whether there will be any positive news to report when he gets here. Recently top sources have stated that the possibility is about “50/50” that a deal can be reached sooner rather than later. 

Certainly for the sake of the Adams trip, it would be an opportune development.

Sinn Fein Will Be In Government

SINN Fein were also in the headlines in Ireland last week, but not by their own hand. New Irish Foreign Minster Dermot Ahern states that he thought Sinn Fein would be in government some time in the future if the IRA disbanded.

You would think Ahern had mentioned that the earth was flat, so outraged was the commentary, especially from neo-Unionist newspapers. (America has its neocons in positions of power, Ireland has the neo-Unionists.)

What Ahern stated was eminently sensible. If Sinn Fein goes 100% down the road to political means then there is no reason in the world that they cannot become members in a future government. Given their electoral success to date since the peace process began, that could be sooner rather than later.