Lisbon Nightmare for Government?

Ireland Calling with John Spain

Lisbon Nightmare for Government?

June 11, 2008

Ireland's Calling with John Spain

THIS Thursday, June 12, Ireland goes to the polls in a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, and it looks like the first big test for our new Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Brian Cowen could turn into a nightmare. At the moment it is too close to call, but the indications are that a majority of people will vote against it and the treaty will be rejected.

That would be a major embarrassment for the Irish government. Ireland is the only country in Europe holding a vote on the treaty and if we reject it, then this important treaty which is vital for the future of all 27 countries in the European Union will be dead in the water in its present form.

Though the latest opinion poll in The Sunday Business Post shows the Yes vote is now three points ahead, the No vote has nearly doubled in the past three weeks, jumping dramatically to 35% from the previous 18%. At the same time the Yes vote has dropped.

And it’s not just the size of the gap that has opened up in the opinion polls that is worrying the government, it’s the trend. The momentum is with the No side.

Even so, the referendum could still go either way as a substantial number of voters haven’t made up their minds. The government was putting everything it could into a last minute push last weekend to swing these voters around. But the tendency in previous referendums has been for voters who Don’t Know to either stay away or vote No.

So it doesn’t look good because the don’t know voters are likely to follow the maxim if you don’t know, vote No. When in doubt, leave it out. And leaving it out means voting No.

The problem is that the Lisbon Treaty is horrendously complicated and lengthy. Because it’s a legal document modifying previous European treaties, it’s hard to follow. Even the experts admit that, although they insist it’s a good development for Ireland and essential for the future of Europe.

Ireland’s European Commissioner Charlie McCreevey, for example, has said publicly that people would be “mad” to try to read it in full. To help voters, every house in the country was sent a summary of the treaty, and we also got a six-page folding brochure giving the wording of the proposed amendment to our Constitution necessary to implement the treaty.

There are about 15 paragraphs in this amendment, and I will quote you just one of them to give you a flavor of what voters here are grappling with: “The state may agree to the decisions, regulations or other acts under Article 2.67 (in so far as it relates to subparagraph (d) of Article 69A.2, the third subparagraph of Article 69B.1 and paragraphs 1 and 4 of Article 69E of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union).”

That’s just one paragraph. And it’s not the longest or the most obscure. If you were faced with this, would you vote Yes? Or would you say, I can’t be bothered trying to understand this, I’m voting No?

That, in a nutshell is the problem facing the government. Even though the Treaty is supported by all the political parties here both on the government and opposition sides, except for Sinn Fein and the loony left, it could well be defeated.

Another reason voters here could vote No has nothing to do with Europe or the treaty at all. The economy here is now in sharp decline (a headline last week quoted a leaked report saying that one quarter of all construction workers here will lose their jobs by the end of next year).

The housing market is collapsing, manufacturing jobs are vanishing overseas and food and energy prices are rising. It’s the economy stupid, once again, and many voters are likely to punish the government for the downturn by voting No.

In one way, however, they are connected. I heard one man on radio last weekend saying he was an unemployed decorator. “I can’t get work,” he said, “because all the Poles and Latvians are working for *2 an hour. There’s 30 of them living in a three-bedroom house near me. I’ll never work again because of the EU.”

It’s easy to dismiss this stuff as racist, as those in comfortable jobs paid for by the state do. But if you look at the recent Census Report you see that an incredible nine out of 20 of the new jobs created here in the year leading up to the census in 2006 were taken by immigrants.

As I have said here before, creating the new unified Europe is a painful experience for many people, especially ordinary workers. And like the unemployed decorator, they will vote No in this referendum simply because the treaty aims to bring Europe even closer together.

The opinion polls show that the No voters are against the Lisbon Treaty for a variety of reasons, most of them bogus issues thrown up by the No campaign to scare people. Most people who say they will vote No on Thursday are doing so because they think the EU will either undermine our Constitution, end our neutrality, bring in gay marriage and abortion, increase taxation and immigration, or all of the above and a whole lot more pagan ideas as well. Most of this is nonsense, of course.

So before we all get carried away, what is it all about? Why is Ireland the only country to be voting on it? Why is it called the Lisbon Treaty anyway? What are the main proposals?

Well first of all, Ireland is unique. Other countries within the EU, all 26 of them, can ratify EU treaties by a vote in parliament.

But because of a Supreme Court ruling here, Ireland has to hold a national vote. This is because when we ratify a new EU treaty it has implications for our Constitution, and the Supreme Court here has insisted that any time our Constitution is changed, the government must hold a referendum to get the agreement of the people to the changes.

On the Lisbon label, the real name for this treaty is the Reform Treaty. It’s called the Treaty of Lisbon because it was signed last December at a summit of the 27 European leaders in Lisbon.

The Reform Treaty amends all the current EU treaties, but does not replace them (that’s why it’s so complicated to read). The stated purpose of the Reform Treaty is to enhance “the efficiency and democratic legitimacy of the (European) Union” and to improve its coherence.

The reason it is necessary is because the existing treaties and the structures and institutions that were set up under them are hopelessly out of date. Most of them date back to the time the EU was 12 and then 15 nations.

Now it is 27 nations and the old structures can’t cope. It needs new structures to make the Union manageable and efficient and to facilitate its development.

We don’t have space in this column to explain the existing structures that run the EU — the Council, the Commission and the European Parliament. You can find this stuff easily on the web, and when you have boned up on the basics then you can Google Lisbon Treaty and see where the changes are coming.

One of the main ones is that instead of the rotating presidency, under which member states in turn spend six months at the helm, a president of the European Council (which comprises the leaders of the 27 member nations) will be elected by the leaders to a two-and-a-half-year term, renewable once. This president will prepare summits and represent the EU on the world stage.

There is also to be a new EU foreign affairs minister, to be called the “High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy” who will speak for the EU as a whole on foreign policy matters and coordinate all EU external action.

At present each member nation has a commissioner on the EU’s executive, the Commission. So there are 27 commissioners, far too many. This will be reduced by a third, so in future there will be some years when we — and all other states — don’t have a commissioner. And the directly elected European Parliament which now has 785 members (!) is to be reduced slightly.

All of these changes worry the No camp, which says the EU is out of control and undemocratic. There are changes at several levels to reduce national vetoes and increase majority voting. And there are changes in the way European legislation will be proposed and enacted.

Again, the No camp here is paranoid about this because it might undermine our traditional values. They are even more paranoid about changes in the EU courts, for the same reason.

And there are other things that really bother some people here, like the fact that the treaty would make the EU’s Charter of Fundamental Rights apply here (gay marriage or abortion anyone?) Or, on a more practical level, the threat of EU tax harmonization which could eventually mean the end of our very, very low corporation tax rate so beloved of American multi-nationals.

In fact, there is very little chance that any of this will happen, Even so, a lot of people here are scared of change and angry about the downturn.

The backlash may well give the No vote the victory, which will mean that this little nation on the edge of Europe will sink the Lisbon Treaty for the whole continent. Or to put it another way, our 4 million people will decide for the 493 million people in the 27 member nations! How embarrassing is that?

Of course it won’t stop the development of the European Union. But it will delay everything for another couple of years at least, and we won’t be the most popular guys in the room as a result.

Mind you, if we all speak Irish and Sinn Fein runs the economy we’ll be grand. Who needs Europe anyway?

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